Apa yang harus diperhatikan pada hari pemilihan


Penulis: Leah Askarinan

WASHINGTON (AP) — Malam pemilu di Amerika mirip seperti teka-teki gambar, hanya saja hanya satu bagian yang muncul dalam satu waktu dan Anda tidak dapat melihat gambar di kotaknya.

Dengan ribuan kabupaten dan kota yang melaporkan jumlah total suara, sulit untuk menentukan kapan hasil yang dilaporkan sejauh ini akan mencerminkan hasilnya.

Laporan pertama pada malam itu mungkin menunjukkan keunggulan besar bagi satu kandidat, namun mengapa keunggulan tersebut menyusut di beberapa pemilu dan meningkat di pemilu lainnya? Mengapa pembaruan suara di kota besar terkadang mengonfirmasi pemenang padahal masih banyak suara tersisa untuk dihitung? Apa perbedaan antara “fatamorgana” dan hasil nyata?

Pemilu yang lalu dapat memberikan panduan.

FILE - Alan Zumel, seorang karyawan di The Abbey Food & Bar, menonton liputan pemilihan presiden di televisi di atas bar, Kamis, 5 November 2020, di West Hollywood, California.
FILE – Alan Zumel, seorang karyawan di The Abbey Food & Bar, menonton liputan pemilihan presiden di televisi di atas bar, Kamis, 5 November 2020, di West Hollywood, California.

Data-data tersebut menunjukkan bahwa surat suara yang masuk pada pemilu baru-baru ini lebih condong ke arah Partai Demokrat, dan di beberapa negara bagian, kabupaten/kota adalah kabupaten pertama yang melaporkan hal tersebut. Hal ini dapat menciptakan “fatamorgana biru” dalam kampanye, yang pada akhirnya akan menghasilkan kemenangan tipis bagi Partai Demokrat atau bahkan kemenangan besar bagi Partai Republik. Mereka menunjukkan bahwa Partai Republik bisa kehilangan kota-kota besar secara telak dan tetap memenangkan pemilu.

Meski begitu, ada kalanya aturan dan pola yang lazim diabaikan, baik karena perubahan tak terduga dalam proses administrasi negara atau perubahan besar dalam perilaku pemilih.

Beberapa contoh terbaru dari negara-negara bagian utama dapat membantu kita memahami apa yang terjadi antara pemungutan suara yang ditutup pada sore hari di Florida dan penutupan pemungutan suara di Arizona pada pukul 10 malam ET.

Florida

Petunjuk pertama tentang malam pemilu biasanya datang dari Florida. Hasil akan tersedia mulai pukul 7 malam ET, meskipun pemungutan suara akhir di negara bagian tersebut baru ditutup pada pukul 8 malam ET.

Tidak setiap negara bagian secara eksplisit melaporkan apakah negara bagian tersebut menyertakan surat suara yang masuk, pemungutan suara langsung lebih awal, atau surat suara pada Hari Pemilu ketika negara bagian tersebut merilis pembaruan pemungutan suara. Namun ketika negara-negara bagian benar-benar memberikan informasi tersebut, atau terdapat cukup petunjuk untuk mencari tahu sendiri, hal ini akan sangat membantu dalam mencari tahu mengapa penghitungan suara berjalan seperti yang terjadi pada saat itu.



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